The Problem With Clay

Oh Clay, how could it have gone so wrong? Remember last season, those were happier times. Your 4-start audition left Red Sox fans everywhere agog. Three wins, twenty-two strikeouts, and of course, the no-hitter.

Coming into this spring, we dreamt of a legendary starting rotation even after losing a potential Hall of Famer* to injury. Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz, how could it fail? We even had an ex-Cy Young award winner** and a rookie with a killer sinker*** waiting in the wings, just in.

*Curt Schilling **Bartolo Colon ***Justin Masterson

Four months later, things are going better than we could have imagined.

True, Beckett's ERA is hovering right around 4.00, but he's been very effective, striking out 107 batters while posting an incredible K:BB ratio of 4.46. If he can cut down on his home-runs allowed, 14 so far, he could be even better.

Daisuke Matsuzaka might be the most infuriating pitcher on the Red Sox to watch. We've shelled out over $100 million to get him, and he stinks up the place with 57 walks so far, good for 8th most in the league, and his WHIP sits at 1.381. He's almost impossible to watch; nibbling at the zone when he could just slam the door with his raw stuff, walking guys left and right, getting into painful jams... Wait, what? He's leading the Red Sox in wins with 10, and he only has 1 loss? His ERA is 2.65, and his ERA+ is a rediculous 163? Well, alright, if you say so.

Jon Lesters numbers look simply above-average at first glance, but in reality they could not be more heroic. His 3.38 ERA (128 ERA+), 1.328 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts are solid figures, but for him to be putting them up less than two years after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma is downright astonishing. His , and no-hitter in May was a cathartic experience, both for him and Red Sox fans everywhere.

Tim Wakefield is still trucking along after 14 years in a Red Sox uniform. For as unpredictable as his knuckleball his, the man himself is a paragon of consistency. You can count on him for a low-to-mid 4's ERA and 180+ innings, if he's reasonably healthy. Right now he's at 3.60, but his WHIP is uncharacteristically low at 1.177 , and his strike outs are up, 84 in 122.3 innings, putting him on pace for approximately 133 K's in 194 innings on the season. That would be his highest total since 2005. Chances are though, as the summer heats up, so will his ERA, but you can count on him for 12 wins or so.

Which brings us to Clay Buchholz. Across the board, his statistics look terrifying: 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA, (74 ERA+), and an ugly 1.712 WHIP. He's looked hopeless on all fronts. His control has been wild and his demeanor has been shell-shocked. He hasn't gone more than 5 innings in a start since May 2nd, but he's only made 4 starts since then due to a DL stint (torn fingernail) and a stint in the minors to refine his fastball command. All across Red Sox Nation, fans are asking the question, "Is this Clay Buchholz, or Clay Aiken?" Well, slow your horses and allow me to lay out my reasoning for why it's all downhill for our young, troubled prodigy.

A.) He's 23 years old. Three years ago he was pitching for Angelina Community College in Lufkin, Texas. I'll give him a mulligan and tolerate an adjustment period, both athletically and lifestyle-wise.

B.) He's still striking out batters. 51 in 52 innings to be exact. Extrapolated out over the standard 200 innings, that's 196 K's. That's pretty darned good. Despite his apparent control problems, he's not walking THAT many guys (27 so far), which is visible in his respectable 1.88 K:BB ratio. His problem is that he's been giving giving up gobs of hits, 62 total in his 52 innings of work.

C.) He's been really unlucky, in lots of ways. In his 10 starts, he's received an averaged of 4.70 runs of support, but that's a deceiving figure. In four of his starts, the Sox have scored 7 runs or more, going 2-2 in those games, but in the other six games they've scored 3 or less. If we revert those four high scoring games to the average figure, we get a far more telling 3.80 runs per game. He's also had 8 errors behind him, leading to 5 unearned runs. Digging a little deeper, we can look back at that high hit total. There's a little stat called BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. Basically, the idea is that once the ball is hit, it's pretty much out of the pitchers control whether the ball falls in or is caught and turned into an out. The data supports that hypothesis, with the league average BABIP pretty much always coming in around .300. In this case, Buchholzes BABIP for the season dials in at .372, or 24% higher than the league average. That's kind of a big deal. If we reduce that hits allowed number by 24%, it comes out to approximately 47, which would bring his WHIP down to 1.43. Still not pretty, but it's a large improvement.

D.) Last of all, he has ludicrous "stuff." Clay Buchholz might just have the best physical pitches of any man on the Red Sox roster. His 4-seam fastball normally sits in the low-to-mid 90's, but he can run it up to 97-98 if he needs it. His 2-seamer is a little slower, but features good movement. His slider is the weak point, as it's merely average. His two best pitches are his change and his curve. He throws a straight change, usually from 78-82, with an arm motion that's virtually identical to his fastball. His curve usually ranges from 75-80, and it's a beauty; an absolutely picture-perfect 12-6 hammer curve. On any given day he can either freeze you with a change, or buckle your knees with the curve. When he's on, they're almost unhittable.

Despite all his struggles, every once in a while you'll see what makes Red Sox management sees. You'll see him put that 2-seamer over the inside edge and catch the man at the plate unprepared, or throw a change so filthy that it makes a seasoned veteran look like Ralphie, the kid who your Little League coach gave the required one at bat, then left on the bench to pick his nose. Best of all, you'll see him unleash that dirty, nasty curve and watch the batters knees turn to jelly as he watches the pitch soar right for his head, before diving right onto the outside corner.

If you had to ask me, I think he'll be just fine. My bet's that he pitches alright in the second half, maybe a 3.80-4 ERA, while they keep his innings down, and then he comes back strong next year. The man is 6'3", 190 lbs, he can afford to put some more on to build up his durability, which in turn builds confidence. Whatever you do, don't count Clay out.

-Sox

HT: Sox Prospects for the exacts on his pitch velocities, as well as Baseball Reference and First Inning for the necessary numbers.