I know the name of the blog implies a focus on baseball, but Rox and I both love football like a fat kid loves cake, so I'll be bringing you a series highlighting the Patriots' team and the road they'll have to travel to get to Superbowl XLIII. I'll be breaking the players down by position, doing my best to identify who'll make the roster, and what their roles will be. Without further ado, your 2008-2009 New England Patriots.
Notes: I'll be making reckless predictions on who's making the team, and what their season stats will look like. We'll definitely check back during and after the season to see how I stack up.
Notes: I'll be making reckless predictions on who's making the team, and what their season stats will look like. We'll definitely check back during and after the season to see how I stack up.
DEFENSE
Defensive Line
For all of the praise heaped on other positional groupings, the defensive line still might be the best of them all. Playing in the trenches in the 3-4 is no easy task; you're asked to fill space, play gaps, and take on double-teams virtually every single play, while your buddies playing in the 4-3 are padding their stats. If they have one weakness, it's their lack of a consistent pass rush, but the play of the unit is still superlative.
Nose Tackle
Vince Wilfork is the unquestioned starter here, coming off of his first Pro-Bowl selection. Playing nose tackle can best be described as being a fire hydrant at a dog show, but Wilfork handles it all with ease. He's strong enough to deal with the constant double-teaming and surprisingly nimble, allowing him to get outside on sweeps, tosses, and screens. He's even been able to generate an impressive pash-rush presence from his position in the middle. A lot has been made of his decision to lose weight over the last few seasons for health reasons and he's certainly slimmed his figure down. Big Vince is kindly listed at 6'2" 325 lbs, but if he's a pound under 350, color me surprised.
Mike Wright, the 4th year pro out of Cincinnati, is the top backup in the middle. At 6'4" 295 lbs, he's built more like an outside player, but he's strong, versatile, and athletic enough to play NT, DT, DE, and special teams. His is a remarkable story, coming in as an undrafted rookie and playing his way onto a team coming off of a Super Bowl victory, and he's gotten better with every year in the league.
Kenny Smith is a serviceable veteran who signed with the Pats last season, but was cut before the first game and spent the rest of the year out of football. Steve Fifta and Titus Adams are both fringe roster guys, spending time on practice squads and offseason rosters. There's a chance one of them, probably Adams, could make the Practice Squad, but they're mostly just warm bodies to plug in during camp.
Defensive End
The defensive end position in the 3-4 actually plays more like a 4-3 tackle, but for the sake of simplicity in terminology, I'll use the Patriots designation of end. Richard Seymour is the star here, with 5 Pro-Bowls, and 3 All-Pro selections, but none since 2006. Nagging injuries and the typical wear and tear seemingly caught up with Big Dick. A lot of observers have been quick to count the guy out, but all signs indicate that Seymour had a productive winter rehabbing and is good to go. It's easy to forget what a transcendent athlete this guys is. At 6'6", 310 lbs he's strong enough to go toe-to-toe with an O-lineman (or two) in he needs to drive inside, but if he gets a favorable match-up on the outside he can turn the corner and beat the blockers up the field. He's a 4-down player, and if he can stay on the field for at least 70% of the teams defensive plays, I'll say that the Patriots can be a Top-10 defense. He's that good.
While his counterpart on the other side may not have the same renown, he's certainly deserving of more than his fair share of praise. Ty Warren came into the league with some glaring weaknesses in his game, a first round pick almost on talent alone, and he's worked tirelessly to get better. At the beginning of his career he was a 2-down player, coming off the field in obvious passing situations, but in the last few years he's really blossomed. Always a brusing run-stopper, he's learned to overcome the constant double-teams and rush the passer effectively. Warren's ability to set the edge on outside runs, and sniff out between-the-tackles plays are crucial in that they allow defensive coordinator Dean Pees to gamble more with the linebackers. Although he rarely receives the same praise as his contemporaries, many football insiders have been calling for him to receiver Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors.
Backing up both Seymour and Warren is Jarvis Green. Green is the one who suffers most from the Patriots 3-4 scheme, as he could be starting for probably 15 or more of the other teams in the league. Still, the 7th year veteran is the consumate teammate, relishing in his role as a super-sub and the top pinch-hitter when New England needs to generate a pass rush. Green can play the run well enough, but he's an explosive speed rusher, often used on 3rd downs or when the Patriots feel like he gives them an advantageous match-up. If Warren or Seymour were to go down, Green is capable of stepping into the starting role and playing well enough to keep the Patriots afloat.
Santonio Thomas and Le Kevin Smith are the back-ups at this position. Thomas is now in his 4th year with the team after going undrafted out of Miami, spending '05 and '06 on the practice squad and '07 on the active roster, while Smith was a 6th rounder back in '06 out of Nebraska. They both have the weight (~305 lbs) and versatility to play anywhere across the line, and they're adequate step-ins, but I wouldn't trust either of them with serious playing time just yet. Smith has seen more game time and plays on more special teams, but they've both been in the system for a while, giving them the edge over some of the other fringe guys.
Expectations
Health providing, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this unit could be the best in the league. Realistically, I'd put them at 3 or 4, behind the Vikings, Giants, and maybe Baltimore, but that's still awful good company to be in.
Sleepers
There's really nowhere to hide in this positional grouping, but I think Ty Warren could be due for another break-out year. Just seeing him makes me think he could re-up the bar.
Under-The-Radar Contributor
My pet player here is Mike Wright. The guy has great size, uncommon strength, and surprising athleticism. He's another guy I think could surprise a lot of people, especially after being hurt much of last year.
Worrisome Thoughts
Can Seymour regain his 2003-2005 form, and can they all avoid injury?
Depth Chart
NT
*Vince Wilfork
Mike Wright
Kenny Smith
Titus Adams
Steve Fifta
DE
Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Jarvis Green
Le Kevin Smith
Santonio Thomas
Key: Italics = rookie, *asterisk = starter,strikethrough = cut
This is a versatile unit, and a deep one. I'd say Thomas, Kenny Smith, Adams, and Fifta all get cut, partly because they don't have the experience Belichick craves, and partly because none of them are very good. Fifta or Adams could stick around on the Practice Squad due to their relative youth, and Smith/Thomas will probably be cut and resigned a few times this season due to match-ups/injuries.
With the strength and depth of the unit, I wouldn't be surprised to see the coaching staff mix in some 4-man fronts if they feel like they can get a favorable match-up, or if there's a rash of injuries at linebacker. If that happens, you'd probably see Wilfork and Seymour at DT, while Warren and Green play DE.
Bottom Line
Young (all 29 or less), experienced, and good. Nothing to worry about here.
Grade
Nose Tackle
Vince Wilfork is the unquestioned starter here, coming off of his first Pro-Bowl selection. Playing nose tackle can best be described as being a fire hydrant at a dog show, but Wilfork handles it all with ease. He's strong enough to deal with the constant double-teaming and surprisingly nimble, allowing him to get outside on sweeps, tosses, and screens. He's even been able to generate an impressive pash-rush presence from his position in the middle. A lot has been made of his decision to lose weight over the last few seasons for health reasons and he's certainly slimmed his figure down. Big Vince is kindly listed at 6'2" 325 lbs, but if he's a pound under 350, color me surprised.
Mike Wright, the 4th year pro out of Cincinnati, is the top backup in the middle. At 6'4" 295 lbs, he's built more like an outside player, but he's strong, versatile, and athletic enough to play NT, DT, DE, and special teams. His is a remarkable story, coming in as an undrafted rookie and playing his way onto a team coming off of a Super Bowl victory, and he's gotten better with every year in the league.
Kenny Smith is a serviceable veteran who signed with the Pats last season, but was cut before the first game and spent the rest of the year out of football. Steve Fifta and Titus Adams are both fringe roster guys, spending time on practice squads and offseason rosters. There's a chance one of them, probably Adams, could make the Practice Squad, but they're mostly just warm bodies to plug in during camp.
Defensive End
The defensive end position in the 3-4 actually plays more like a 4-3 tackle, but for the sake of simplicity in terminology, I'll use the Patriots designation of end. Richard Seymour is the star here, with 5 Pro-Bowls, and 3 All-Pro selections, but none since 2006. Nagging injuries and the typical wear and tear seemingly caught up with Big Dick. A lot of observers have been quick to count the guy out, but all signs indicate that Seymour had a productive winter rehabbing and is good to go. It's easy to forget what a transcendent athlete this guys is. At 6'6", 310 lbs he's strong enough to go toe-to-toe with an O-lineman (or two) in he needs to drive inside, but if he gets a favorable match-up on the outside he can turn the corner and beat the blockers up the field. He's a 4-down player, and if he can stay on the field for at least 70% of the teams defensive plays, I'll say that the Patriots can be a Top-10 defense. He's that good.
While his counterpart on the other side may not have the same renown, he's certainly deserving of more than his fair share of praise. Ty Warren came into the league with some glaring weaknesses in his game, a first round pick almost on talent alone, and he's worked tirelessly to get better. At the beginning of his career he was a 2-down player, coming off the field in obvious passing situations, but in the last few years he's really blossomed. Always a brusing run-stopper, he's learned to overcome the constant double-teams and rush the passer effectively. Warren's ability to set the edge on outside runs, and sniff out between-the-tackles plays are crucial in that they allow defensive coordinator Dean Pees to gamble more with the linebackers. Although he rarely receives the same praise as his contemporaries, many football insiders have been calling for him to receiver Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors.
Backing up both Seymour and Warren is Jarvis Green. Green is the one who suffers most from the Patriots 3-4 scheme, as he could be starting for probably 15 or more of the other teams in the league. Still, the 7th year veteran is the consumate teammate, relishing in his role as a super-sub and the top pinch-hitter when New England needs to generate a pass rush. Green can play the run well enough, but he's an explosive speed rusher, often used on 3rd downs or when the Patriots feel like he gives them an advantageous match-up. If Warren or Seymour were to go down, Green is capable of stepping into the starting role and playing well enough to keep the Patriots afloat.
Santonio Thomas and Le Kevin Smith are the back-ups at this position. Thomas is now in his 4th year with the team after going undrafted out of Miami, spending '05 and '06 on the practice squad and '07 on the active roster, while Smith was a 6th rounder back in '06 out of Nebraska. They both have the weight (~305 lbs) and versatility to play anywhere across the line, and they're adequate step-ins, but I wouldn't trust either of them with serious playing time just yet. Smith has seen more game time and plays on more special teams, but they've both been in the system for a while, giving them the edge over some of the other fringe guys.
Expectations
Health providing, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this unit could be the best in the league. Realistically, I'd put them at 3 or 4, behind the Vikings, Giants, and maybe Baltimore, but that's still awful good company to be in.
Sleepers
There's really nowhere to hide in this positional grouping, but I think Ty Warren could be due for another break-out year. Just seeing him makes me think he could re-up the bar.
Under-The-Radar Contributor
My pet player here is Mike Wright. The guy has great size, uncommon strength, and surprising athleticism. He's another guy I think could surprise a lot of people, especially after being hurt much of last year.
Worrisome Thoughts
Can Seymour regain his 2003-2005 form, and can they all avoid injury?
Depth Chart
NT
*Vince Wilfork
Mike Wright
Titus Adams
Steve Fifta
DE
Richard Seymour
Ty Warren
Jarvis Green
Le Kevin Smith
Key: Italics = rookie, *asterisk = starter,
This is a versatile unit, and a deep one. I'd say Thomas, Kenny Smith, Adams, and Fifta all get cut, partly because they don't have the experience Belichick craves, and partly because none of them are very good. Fifta or Adams could stick around on the Practice Squad due to their relative youth, and Smith/Thomas will probably be cut and resigned a few times this season due to match-ups/injuries.
With the strength and depth of the unit, I wouldn't be surprised to see the coaching staff mix in some 4-man fronts if they feel like they can get a favorable match-up, or if there's a rash of injuries at linebacker. If that happens, you'd probably see Wilfork and Seymour at DT, while Warren and Green play DE.
Bottom Line
Young (all 29 or less), experienced, and good. Nothing to worry about here.
Grade
Linebacker
This positional grouping is one of those touchy subjects that everyone in Patriots Nation, from Hartford to Augusta, loves to talk about. Every year, we clamor for Belichick, Pioli, and Co. to draft the latest stud linebacker coming out of college, and every year they've instead simply added veteran re-treads and low round rookies, but it's always worked out. At least, that is, until this year, when New England spent 1st and 3rd round picks on linebackers (as well as a 6th rounder).
Inside Linebacker
No one knows for sure why Belichick shys away from young backers, but it's likely because the Patriots run a 3-4 with a famously complex defensive scheme. The 3-4 requires your inside linebackers to be strong and sturdy enough to take on interior lineman and fight through traffic for the tackle AND drop back into coverage against tight ends and running backs. In addition, the "Mike" or strong-side inside linebacker is responsible for calling the defensive plays, as well as any audibles (generally Tedy Bruschi). The Mike is usually more responsible for playing the run, while the "Will," or weak-side inside linebacker ends up in coverage more often, but for the defense to be effective, these guys have to be interchangeable.
Tedy Bruschi is the unquestioned starter at Mike, as he has been for almost a decade. He's still passable in coverage after all these years, but his strength lies in sniffing out the run. He's tough enough to tangle with guards and centers and still find the gap and get to the ball carrier. He's never been a sack machine, largely due to the way the Patriots use him, but he can be a pressure presence in the middle when he's asked to be. More important than his well above-average performance is his leadership. He brings authority to the field with him and commands the respect of every man on the team. He's so fucking tough, he suffered a stroke after the 2004 Super Bowl, and managed to play in 9 games the next season (and well at that). Hear that, his own BRAIN tried to kill him, and he overcame it. Tell me you wouldn't follow that guy into hell and back.
Who will man the spot next to him, meanwhile, isn't quite so clear. Jerod Mayo was drafted in the first round, clearly for no other reason than to start here, but sooner or later is the question. In the pre-season games he's shown remarkable speed, incredible strength, and a jaw-dropping ability to deliver a blow. He's got a marked propensity for being around the ball, and his ability to fight through the scrum in the middle is further along than I thought it would be. If there's a knock on the guy, it's that he's missed a few tackles he should've otherwise made. What's really indicative of Mayo's future is that the perpetual question of, "Can he learn the play book?" has been conspicuously absent.
Also in the mix to start is Victor Hobson. Hobson was signed from the New York Jets, who also ran a 3-4, where he played OLB. Here, he's being asked to play inside, and he seems to be capable enough. He's fairly strong, and pretty fast, and has always been a team-first guy. That said, he hasn't gotten a lot of playing time. There's always the chance that he has some kind of nagging injury, but there are whispers that he's been far, far too slow in picking up the playbook. He's even admitted as much, if heavily veiled, to reporters. I'd say he'd be a good backup, but he hasn't been on the field to prove anything, and at this point I think there's an outside chance he misses out on making the squad.
Eric Alexander, Larry Izzo, and Bo Ruud round out the inside staff. Eric Alexander's biggest came to fame is that he came out of nowhere to start the 2006-2007 AFC Championship game against the Colts, where Dallas Clark and Domanic Rhoades famously ran the Patriots inside linebackers ragged. I can see where Belichick was going, he's not great against the run if it's coming right at him, but he's fast and agile enough to cover most anyone over the middle, as well as track down any outside runs. He'll make the team because of his worthwhile value in Nickel, Dime, and other assorted packages geared against the passing game. Alexander is also an asset on special teams, which brings us to stalwart Larry Izzo.
Izzo is one of those guys that virtually any team in the NFL would make room for on their roster because of his special teams prowess. At 5'10" 228 lbs, he's not a good fit in anything resembling a base defense, although he's a solid contributor in passing and goal-line situations due to his speed and ability to track down players in space, but make no mistake, he's on this team because he gets geeked up and charges straight down the throat of the opponents kick return wedge, or goes out a levels a guy in an attempt to spring a big return. He's also incredibly well-respected around the clubhouse, having been elected a team captain; a definite leadership presence.
I hate to talk down on Bo Ruud, but the next time I notice him in a game, I'll let you know. He's supposedly a good sideline-to-sideline guy with some position flexibility. His older brother Barrett is a pretty good player for the Buccaneers, so he might have a chance to stick somewhere, but it's not likely to be here.
One "Plan-B" style option that remains is Junior Seau. After his two year deal with the Patriots expired, he's stayed out of the spotlight; probably surfing and running his restaurant out in San Diego. Still, I have no doubt that he's staying in prime shape, because if there's any sort of injury problem I expect that he'd get the first call, and I think he'd accept. He's still a wild-man, heat-seeking-missile type against the run, which can be a good and bad thing, but he's still almost unparallelled when it comes to covering the NFL's fastest tight-ends and running backs, be in over the middle or downfield. That alone will keep him at the back of the coaching staff's mind.
Outside Linebacker
The outside positions are where 3-4's often run into the most trouble. Most college and pro players play in the 4-3, where the outside rushers are defensive ends with a hand on the ground. These DE's often have trouble adjusting to a 3-4, largely because they're often called on to cover running backs, tight ends, and the occasional wide receiver, often out in space if the player splits out. Despite their coverage responsibilities, they have to be large and strong to contend with the offensive tackles they'll be matched up against. The Patriots have two outside postions, the "Sam" and "Jack." The "Sam" is the strong-side outside player, whereas the "Jack" is the weak-side outside player. The positions are functionally identical in the pro-game, simply designating the responsibility of the player in a given scheme depending on how the offense lines up. The Patriots, as with most teams, do not generally switch their players side of the field in response to the offensive scheme. They prefer to have their left-side players stay on the left, and simply adopt new rules, and vice-versa.
Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel are both deeply entrenched at the left and right outside spots, respectably. Both are incredibly capable pass rushers. Vrabel came in at 6th in the league (3rd in the AFC) with 12.5 sacks, while Adalius Thomas tallied 6.5 of his own. Thomas numbers are a bit deceiving, in that he began the season as a starter at the weak-side inside position, and racked up 3.5 of those sacks over the last 5 weeks of the season, once Roosevelt Colvin went down for the year with an injury.
Thomas is primarily a speed rusher, while Vrabel brings more of a power look, but they're both capable of switching it up to confuse, confound, and otherwise bewilder opposing blockers. Of the two, Thomas is the more accomplished cover man, capable of lining up against wide receivers in the slot and covering pretty much any tight end or running back. Vrabel used to be more capable in coverage, but at this point in his career he's best left to zone coverage over the middle. He's got a nasty habit of getting beat on swing routes to the sideline, but really, that's all nit-picking. These two linebackers form a fearsome duo that no offensive line should relish facing down.
Inside Linebacker
No one knows for sure why Belichick shys away from young backers, but it's likely because the Patriots run a 3-4 with a famously complex defensive scheme. The 3-4 requires your inside linebackers to be strong and sturdy enough to take on interior lineman and fight through traffic for the tackle AND drop back into coverage against tight ends and running backs. In addition, the "Mike" or strong-side inside linebacker is responsible for calling the defensive plays, as well as any audibles (generally Tedy Bruschi). The Mike is usually more responsible for playing the run, while the "Will," or weak-side inside linebacker ends up in coverage more often, but for the defense to be effective, these guys have to be interchangeable.
Tedy Bruschi is the unquestioned starter at Mike, as he has been for almost a decade. He's still passable in coverage after all these years, but his strength lies in sniffing out the run. He's tough enough to tangle with guards and centers and still find the gap and get to the ball carrier. He's never been a sack machine, largely due to the way the Patriots use him, but he can be a pressure presence in the middle when he's asked to be. More important than his well above-average performance is his leadership. He brings authority to the field with him and commands the respect of every man on the team. He's so fucking tough, he suffered a stroke after the 2004 Super Bowl, and managed to play in 9 games the next season (and well at that). Hear that, his own BRAIN tried to kill him, and he overcame it. Tell me you wouldn't follow that guy into hell and back.
Who will man the spot next to him, meanwhile, isn't quite so clear. Jerod Mayo was drafted in the first round, clearly for no other reason than to start here, but sooner or later is the question. In the pre-season games he's shown remarkable speed, incredible strength, and a jaw-dropping ability to deliver a blow. He's got a marked propensity for being around the ball, and his ability to fight through the scrum in the middle is further along than I thought it would be. If there's a knock on the guy, it's that he's missed a few tackles he should've otherwise made. What's really indicative of Mayo's future is that the perpetual question of, "Can he learn the play book?" has been conspicuously absent.
Also in the mix to start is Victor Hobson. Hobson was signed from the New York Jets, who also ran a 3-4, where he played OLB. Here, he's being asked to play inside, and he seems to be capable enough. He's fairly strong, and pretty fast, and has always been a team-first guy. That said, he hasn't gotten a lot of playing time. There's always the chance that he has some kind of nagging injury, but there are whispers that he's been far, far too slow in picking up the playbook. He's even admitted as much, if heavily veiled, to reporters. I'd say he'd be a good backup, but he hasn't been on the field to prove anything, and at this point I think there's an outside chance he misses out on making the squad.
Eric Alexander, Larry Izzo, and Bo Ruud round out the inside staff. Eric Alexander's biggest came to fame is that he came out of nowhere to start the 2006-2007 AFC Championship game against the Colts, where Dallas Clark and Domanic Rhoades famously ran the Patriots inside linebackers ragged. I can see where Belichick was going, he's not great against the run if it's coming right at him, but he's fast and agile enough to cover most anyone over the middle, as well as track down any outside runs. He'll make the team because of his worthwhile value in Nickel, Dime, and other assorted packages geared against the passing game. Alexander is also an asset on special teams, which brings us to stalwart Larry Izzo.
Izzo is one of those guys that virtually any team in the NFL would make room for on their roster because of his special teams prowess. At 5'10" 228 lbs, he's not a good fit in anything resembling a base defense, although he's a solid contributor in passing and goal-line situations due to his speed and ability to track down players in space, but make no mistake, he's on this team because he gets geeked up and charges straight down the throat of the opponents kick return wedge, or goes out a levels a guy in an attempt to spring a big return. He's also incredibly well-respected around the clubhouse, having been elected a team captain; a definite leadership presence.
I hate to talk down on Bo Ruud, but the next time I notice him in a game, I'll let you know. He's supposedly a good sideline-to-sideline guy with some position flexibility. His older brother Barrett is a pretty good player for the Buccaneers, so he might have a chance to stick somewhere, but it's not likely to be here.
One "Plan-B" style option that remains is Junior Seau. After his two year deal with the Patriots expired, he's stayed out of the spotlight; probably surfing and running his restaurant out in San Diego. Still, I have no doubt that he's staying in prime shape, because if there's any sort of injury problem I expect that he'd get the first call, and I think he'd accept. He's still a wild-man, heat-seeking-missile type against the run, which can be a good and bad thing, but he's still almost unparallelled when it comes to covering the NFL's fastest tight-ends and running backs, be in over the middle or downfield. That alone will keep him at the back of the coaching staff's mind.
Outside Linebacker
The outside positions are where 3-4's often run into the most trouble. Most college and pro players play in the 4-3, where the outside rushers are defensive ends with a hand on the ground. These DE's often have trouble adjusting to a 3-4, largely because they're often called on to cover running backs, tight ends, and the occasional wide receiver, often out in space if the player splits out. Despite their coverage responsibilities, they have to be large and strong to contend with the offensive tackles they'll be matched up against. The Patriots have two outside postions, the "Sam" and "Jack." The "Sam" is the strong-side outside player, whereas the "Jack" is the weak-side outside player. The positions are functionally identical in the pro-game, simply designating the responsibility of the player in a given scheme depending on how the offense lines up. The Patriots, as with most teams, do not generally switch their players side of the field in response to the offensive scheme. They prefer to have their left-side players stay on the left, and simply adopt new rules, and vice-versa.
Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel are both deeply entrenched at the left and right outside spots, respectably. Both are incredibly capable pass rushers. Vrabel came in at 6th in the league (3rd in the AFC) with 12.5 sacks, while Adalius Thomas tallied 6.5 of his own. Thomas numbers are a bit deceiving, in that he began the season as a starter at the weak-side inside position, and racked up 3.5 of those sacks over the last 5 weeks of the season, once Roosevelt Colvin went down for the year with an injury.
Thomas is primarily a speed rusher, while Vrabel brings more of a power look, but they're both capable of switching it up to confuse, confound, and otherwise bewilder opposing blockers. Of the two, Thomas is the more accomplished cover man, capable of lining up against wide receivers in the slot and covering pretty much any tight end or running back. Vrabel used to be more capable in coverage, but at this point in his career he's best left to zone coverage over the middle. He's got a nasty habit of getting beat on swing routes to the sideline, but really, that's all nit-picking. These two linebackers form a fearsome duo that no offensive line should relish facing down.
The top two back-ups on the outside are pair of ex-Michigan Wolverines with a combined 3 years of experience. Surprisingly, that doesn't strike fear into my heart. Pierre Woods was signed as a rookie free-agent 2 years ago, and he's far better at football than any man with the name "Pierre" has the right to be. At 6'5" 250 lbs, he's got the prototypical size that the Patriots look for, and he's wicked strong, scary strong. He doesn't have a high top-end speed, but he makes up for it by being a very sure tackler, and a smart, heady player. Rookie third rounder Shawn Crable is also 6'5", but I sincerely doubt he's at his listed weight of 250 pounds. I think 230 is more accurate, but that's guessing on the high side. He's lanky, with long, skinny legs, and it shows as his best asset is his ability to get to the passer fast. He's still a project when it comes to coverage, but his explosiveness both laterally and vertically will prove to be useful in 3rd down situations, at the very least.
The last two men on the depth chart are both guys with a chance to make the Patriots roster in one way or another. Both are rookie free-agents, Vince Redd out of Division 1-AA Liberty, and Gary Guyton out of Georgia Tech. Redd is an incredible physical speciman, at 6'6" 260 lbs, with a very good 4.54 40-yard dash, and while Guyton may not "wow" you at 6'3" 242 lbs, he runs the 40 in 4.47 seconds (the fastest of any linebacker at the NFL Combine, and faster than a lot of receivers). They've both proved adept at rushing the passer, and Guyton has made a huge impact on special teams. Redd probably has the edge when it comes to playing in the base defense, due to his size, but Guyton has been equally impressive in pass-rushing/defending packages as well as special teams.
Expectations
Much is expected of this unit, and I think they'll probably live up to all but the loftiest expectations. Hell, they could live up to those. They've all got such differing skill sets, that I'd expect Belichick will be able to limit the shortcomings of individual players. I wouldn't be surprised to see 35-40 sacks total out of this group, all the while playing the run well, and the pass well enough.
Sleepers
It's hard to call a first round pick a sleeper, but I think Jerod Mayo could be an Pro-Bowler if he gets the starts, and stays healthy. Think this year's Patrick Willis, as in an energetic sideline-to-sideline player who can play the run well, and the pass both upfield and downfield.
As far as a real sleeper, I'll go with Shawn Crable, who I think could chip in with 4 or 5 sacks if he gets some playing time.
Under-The-Radar Contributor
They're all pretty high profile guys, at least in the eyes of Patriots fans, but I'll go with the beloved Tedy Bruschi. He's never been the best linebacker in the league, or his conference, and he may never have even been straight up dominant, but he's been a good player for a long time, and as he gets closer and closer to the end of the line, I'm appreciating him more than ever.
Worrisome Thoughts
Health is a concern for the veterans, and experience is a concern for the young guys. If one group goes down, the other will suffer. My biggest concern would be losing Adalius Thomas or Mike Vrabel, as their pass rushing presence is invaluable and likely irreplaceable.
Depth Chart
ILB
*Tedy Bruschi
*Jerod Mayo
Eric Alexander
Larry Izzo
OLB
*Mike Vrabel
*Adalius Thomas
Pierre Woods
Shawn Crable
Gary Guyton
Key: Italics = rookie, *asterisk = starter,
The only easy cut I could find here is Bo Ruud, who just hasn't shown enough. All the others have some very special thing they could bring to the unit. At first I figured Hobson would stick to the roster because he's owed a little more money and he's a proven veteran, but he's shown next to nothing and I think the Patriots have more pressing needs at other positions. Plus, with Seau lying in the grass, we can afford to a be a little short on the active roster. The final cut came down to Redd vs. Guyton, and while I really like both guys, neither is likely to spend much time in the base defense, and so Guyton won out thanks to his special teams play. The team could go the other way, but no matter what, anyone who gets cut from this unit is a practice squad candidate. Ruud could make it through waivers, but Redd and Guyton are less likely, although Redd probably stands the best chance to make it back to the Pats, if released.
Bottom Line
This is very, very good unit, probably stonger on the outside but still solid across the middle. There's a lot of experience, and a lot of youth, making this an insanely fun unit to watch.
Grade
A-
Defensive Back
Ugh, where to begin. For as beloved as the linebacker position is in New England, the secondary is equally revilled. For years Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy were a force to be reckoned with, but since their departure we've yet to see anything resembling an elite secondary. The Patriots require their defensive backs to be strong against the run, to a man. They also look for the ability to blitz from anywhere on the field, be it from safety, the slot, or split out. When it comes to particular coverage, New England likes to mix it up a lot, employing a lot of zone, especially on shorter routes. They don't do a lot of press coverage, in fact it's often just the opposite. I see more 5-7 yard cushions off the line-of-scrimmage than I do corners getting up in guys faces.
Safety
This is decidedly the more steady position this year. Rodney Harrison returns for another year of cracking skulls over the middle, and getting beaten deep. I kid, I kid... but not that much. He's capable of short-to-mid level coverage, but on the third level, he's a decent liability and he's not the quickest guy to get to the perimeter. Despite his shortcomings there, I'm sure the sound of his footsteps still strike fear in the heart of NFL receivers.
James Sanders has been a nice surprise for the Patriots. In his 4th season after being a 4th round pick out of Fresno State, he's developed into an above average starter for the Pats. Stepping in for Eugene Wilson who couldn't stay healthy (and therefore couldn't stay a Patriots), he's essentially a well-rounded version of Rodney Harrison. He's a hard-hitter, but he's not a real problem when it comes to getting deep. One of his true strengths is his deceiving closing speed. Once the ball is in the air, he's very quick to get in the right place, and he gets out to the edge well on passes or runs up the sideline.
Brandon Meriweather was last years first round pick, and he's pretty much the solution to Sanders and Harrison's difficulties downfield. He's a swift, agile guy who's great at getting and sticking to his man, especially downfield. He's a bit raw, his hands are made of stone, and he's a bit of a flaky tackler, but he's the perfect 1-B option for the Patriots secondary.
(Edit: I don't feel bad about swapping Lynch for Tank Williams here, they're basically the same player)
John Lynch is a late addition to the roster, signing after Tank Williams went down against the Ravens with a knee injury. He'll fulfill essentially the same role as his incredibly named predecessor, as safety/linebacker hybrid. He'll probably get a lot of PT on early downs against teams who're more likely to run the ball, as well as in that 3-3-5 set the Patriots love. The question with Lynch is going to be his cover ability, which has appeared worse and worse during each year in recent memory. Still, if Belichick and Co. can limit the passing situations he's exposed to, he could be a real asset.
Antwain Spann, Mark Dillard, and Ray Ventrone are the last three safetys on the roster, and I give two of them a chance to make it. Spann is a tick above average in coverage, which makes sense because he started his career at corner before taking most of his reps at safety this summer. He's not likely to see the field when the Patriots are expecting the run, just because they already have a bunch of DBs who are good at defending the run. He probably sticks around because he's pretty good on specials teams, both as a gunner and a returner.
Ray "Bubba" Ventrone is one of my pet players on this years team. He's been around the Pats for a few years as an undrafted free-agent out of Villanova, mostly seeing practice squad time until last year. He's listed at safety, because that's what he's played his whole career, but the Patriots are working him out at wide receiver as well. It might seem odd, but he's shown some real promise. He has a nice burst off the line and he's got good hands, but he's still a raw project. Still, having a guy who's a capable back-up at both receiver AND safety is a very nice proposition. Guys at the bottom of the roster don't see the field that much, but you need them for the sheer sake of depth. If Ventrone can fulfill that role as both 11th defensive back and 7 receiver he stands a good chance to stick around.
Mark Dillard is a rookie free-agent out of Louisiana Tech, and I don't know anything about him. That's actually sort of odd, since he's apparently made a fair number of tackles according to NFL.com, but I can honestly say I've heard his name called during a game once. I'm pretty sure it was for decent coverage on a punt or kickoff, but I'm not sure so take it as you will. He stands pretty much no chance to make this roster, but I'll go out and say he's a great candidate for the practice squad, mainly because he's apparently had some half-way decent production in garbage time.
Cornerback
Asante Samuel provided a few years of very good, ball-hawking, fast-closing coverage, but other than that, no one has really been anything more than average at corner in recent memory. Ellis Hobbs is the only returning man on the depth chart,* and you all know how I feel about Ellis Hobbs.
*Mike Richardson spent the year on IR, so he was technically on the team, but I'm not going to count a guy who didn't play a single down during the regular season.
He's incapable of covering short routes, mainly because he's so afraid of getting beaten deep that he backpedals 5 or so yards at the snap of the ball, before even seeing what route his receiver is going to run. He's not a sure tackler, and I'd say his hands are made of stone, but I think a boulder could come up with more picks than he does. I will acquiesce to the fact that the Patriots do use him a lot in zone coverage, often making him look bad, when really it's one of his teammates fault. Still, that doesn't change the fact that it's still often HIS fault, due to his poor judgement and all-around terribleness. At this point, I'd rather have a gambling cornerback who gets beat because he sells out, than a gun-shy cornerback who gets beat because he's unwilling to take the simple risk of tight man-on-man coverage (something almost every corner who plays the game is willing to at least try).
Now that the haterade has been poured out for Hobbs, let me say that I'd absoultely love him if he turned it all around and developed into a lock-down, or even pretty good, cornerback, because then, at least, we'd have one good corner. This off-season New England went back to it's time honored strategy of signing a bunch of old, average-ish corners and hoping that grit, hustle, determination, and a little pure luck generates a passable secondary.
Fernando Bryant is currently listed as the starter opposite Hobbs, and he appears to be the safest bet, having started all but one of the 110 games in his 9 year career. Lewis Sanders is behind him, and he seems to be a decent option for the Patriots otherwise undersize seconday, at 6'1" 210 lbs. Jason Webster rounds out the veteran trio, and he appears to be a slightly better turnover option for the secondary with 11 interceptions in his career, compared to 12 combined for Bryant and Sanders.
One thing all of these guys have in common is that they've all missed significant time. Bryant has missed 26 of 64 games over the last 4 years (average of 6.5 a season) and Webster has missed 30 over the same span (7.5 a season), but more disturbingly 23 of 32 games over the past two seasons, including all but one game last year. Sanders has the slight advantage over the other two in this area, having only missed 13 games over the past 4 years (3.25 a season), but he's never been a full time starting option. While these guys may not inspire the greatest of confidence, I expect we'll see more of a "secondary by comittee" approach, which could help counteract their collective cornerback old age (Bryant is 31, Sanders and Webster are 30).
In addition to the three old soldiers, the Patriots brought in 2 cornerbacks via the draft. This was an incredibly deep year for corners coming out of college, which meant Terrence Wheatley of Colorado was still available at pick #62. He may not have had the name recognition of some of the other high-round corners, but most experts feel he was unfairly overlooked because of injury concerns. He's 5'9" 178 lbs, which is a bit small for a corner, he could stand to put on 10 or 15 pounds, but he tied for 5th in his position at the NFL Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash. Analysts have a hard time finding negatives in his game. He's a smart player with great acceleration, top-speed, and closing ability, and he's a decent tackler despite being slightly underweight. He was a shutdown corner in college, and he's been alright in camp so far. He's also a talented kick returner.
Jonathan Wilhite from Auburn was chosen in the 4th round, and he's decidedly less critically acclaimed. The analysts say he has good physical tools, 4.38 40-yard dash, good leaping ability, nice closing speed, but that his problems may lie above the neck and below his cap. The biggest knocks on him are his poor recognition and anticipation skills. He doesn't have the feel to be effective in man coverage, but he also doesn't have the instincts to play well in zone coverage. It all sounds pretty damning, but he hasn't been absolutely terrible with the Patriots. He's shown a lot of guts on special teams, and his measurables should keep him around, at least for this year.
Safety
This is decidedly the more steady position this year. Rodney Harrison returns for another year of cracking skulls over the middle, and getting beaten deep. I kid, I kid... but not that much. He's capable of short-to-mid level coverage, but on the third level, he's a decent liability and he's not the quickest guy to get to the perimeter. Despite his shortcomings there, I'm sure the sound of his footsteps still strike fear in the heart of NFL receivers.
James Sanders has been a nice surprise for the Patriots. In his 4th season after being a 4th round pick out of Fresno State, he's developed into an above average starter for the Pats. Stepping in for Eugene Wilson who couldn't stay healthy (and therefore couldn't stay a Patriots), he's essentially a well-rounded version of Rodney Harrison. He's a hard-hitter, but he's not a real problem when it comes to getting deep. One of his true strengths is his deceiving closing speed. Once the ball is in the air, he's very quick to get in the right place, and he gets out to the edge well on passes or runs up the sideline.
Brandon Meriweather was last years first round pick, and he's pretty much the solution to Sanders and Harrison's difficulties downfield. He's a swift, agile guy who's great at getting and sticking to his man, especially downfield. He's a bit raw, his hands are made of stone, and he's a bit of a flaky tackler, but he's the perfect 1-B option for the Patriots secondary.
(Edit: I don't feel bad about swapping Lynch for Tank Williams here, they're basically the same player)
John Lynch is a late addition to the roster, signing after Tank Williams went down against the Ravens with a knee injury. He'll fulfill essentially the same role as his incredibly named predecessor, as safety/linebacker hybrid. He'll probably get a lot of PT on early downs against teams who're more likely to run the ball, as well as in that 3-3-5 set the Patriots love. The question with Lynch is going to be his cover ability, which has appeared worse and worse during each year in recent memory. Still, if Belichick and Co. can limit the passing situations he's exposed to, he could be a real asset.
Antwain Spann, Mark Dillard, and Ray Ventrone are the last three safetys on the roster, and I give two of them a chance to make it. Spann is a tick above average in coverage, which makes sense because he started his career at corner before taking most of his reps at safety this summer. He's not likely to see the field when the Patriots are expecting the run, just because they already have a bunch of DBs who are good at defending the run. He probably sticks around because he's pretty good on specials teams, both as a gunner and a returner.
Ray "Bubba" Ventrone is one of my pet players on this years team. He's been around the Pats for a few years as an undrafted free-agent out of Villanova, mostly seeing practice squad time until last year. He's listed at safety, because that's what he's played his whole career, but the Patriots are working him out at wide receiver as well. It might seem odd, but he's shown some real promise. He has a nice burst off the line and he's got good hands, but he's still a raw project. Still, having a guy who's a capable back-up at both receiver AND safety is a very nice proposition. Guys at the bottom of the roster don't see the field that much, but you need them for the sheer sake of depth. If Ventrone can fulfill that role as both 11th defensive back and 7 receiver he stands a good chance to stick around.
Mark Dillard is a rookie free-agent out of Louisiana Tech, and I don't know anything about him. That's actually sort of odd, since he's apparently made a fair number of tackles according to NFL.com, but I can honestly say I've heard his name called during a game once. I'm pretty sure it was for decent coverage on a punt or kickoff, but I'm not sure so take it as you will. He stands pretty much no chance to make this roster, but I'll go out and say he's a great candidate for the practice squad, mainly because he's apparently had some half-way decent production in garbage time.
Cornerback
Asante Samuel provided a few years of very good, ball-hawking, fast-closing coverage, but other than that, no one has really been anything more than average at corner in recent memory. Ellis Hobbs is the only returning man on the depth chart,* and you all know how I feel about Ellis Hobbs.
*Mike Richardson spent the year on IR, so he was technically on the team, but I'm not going to count a guy who didn't play a single down during the regular season.
He's incapable of covering short routes, mainly because he's so afraid of getting beaten deep that he backpedals 5 or so yards at the snap of the ball, before even seeing what route his receiver is going to run. He's not a sure tackler, and I'd say his hands are made of stone, but I think a boulder could come up with more picks than he does. I will acquiesce to the fact that the Patriots do use him a lot in zone coverage, often making him look bad, when really it's one of his teammates fault. Still, that doesn't change the fact that it's still often HIS fault, due to his poor judgement and all-around terribleness. At this point, I'd rather have a gambling cornerback who gets beat because he sells out, than a gun-shy cornerback who gets beat because he's unwilling to take the simple risk of tight man-on-man coverage (something almost every corner who plays the game is willing to at least try).
Now that the haterade has been poured out for Hobbs, let me say that I'd absoultely love him if he turned it all around and developed into a lock-down, or even pretty good, cornerback, because then, at least, we'd have one good corner. This off-season New England went back to it's time honored strategy of signing a bunch of old, average-ish corners and hoping that grit, hustle, determination, and a little pure luck generates a passable secondary.
Fernando Bryant is currently listed as the starter opposite Hobbs, and he appears to be the safest bet, having started all but one of the 110 games in his 9 year career. Lewis Sanders is behind him, and he seems to be a decent option for the Patriots otherwise undersize seconday, at 6'1" 210 lbs. Jason Webster rounds out the veteran trio, and he appears to be a slightly better turnover option for the secondary with 11 interceptions in his career, compared to 12 combined for Bryant and Sanders.
One thing all of these guys have in common is that they've all missed significant time. Bryant has missed 26 of 64 games over the last 4 years (average of 6.5 a season) and Webster has missed 30 over the same span (7.5 a season), but more disturbingly 23 of 32 games over the past two seasons, including all but one game last year. Sanders has the slight advantage over the other two in this area, having only missed 13 games over the past 4 years (3.25 a season), but he's never been a full time starting option. While these guys may not inspire the greatest of confidence, I expect we'll see more of a "secondary by comittee" approach, which could help counteract their collective cornerback old age (Bryant is 31, Sanders and Webster are 30).
In addition to the three old soldiers, the Patriots brought in 2 cornerbacks via the draft. This was an incredibly deep year for corners coming out of college, which meant Terrence Wheatley of Colorado was still available at pick #62. He may not have had the name recognition of some of the other high-round corners, but most experts feel he was unfairly overlooked because of injury concerns. He's 5'9" 178 lbs, which is a bit small for a corner, he could stand to put on 10 or 15 pounds, but he tied for 5th in his position at the NFL Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash. Analysts have a hard time finding negatives in his game. He's a smart player with great acceleration, top-speed, and closing ability, and he's a decent tackler despite being slightly underweight. He was a shutdown corner in college, and he's been alright in camp so far. He's also a talented kick returner.
Jonathan Wilhite from Auburn was chosen in the 4th round, and he's decidedly less critically acclaimed. The analysts say he has good physical tools, 4.38 40-yard dash, good leaping ability, nice closing speed, but that his problems may lie above the neck and below his cap. The biggest knocks on him are his poor recognition and anticipation skills. He doesn't have the feel to be effective in man coverage, but he also doesn't have the instincts to play well in zone coverage. It all sounds pretty damning, but he hasn't been absolutely terrible with the Patriots. He's shown a lot of guts on special teams, and his measurables should keep him around, at least for this year.
There are two three guys on the roster, Mike Richardson, Jeff Shoate, and Ade Jimoh. Richardson was signed as a rookie free-agent out of Notre Dame last year, but went to the Injured Reserve list during the preseason. He's not super fast, and he can get beat in man coverage, but he's smart and plays well in zone. Shoate and Jimoh are mostly just live bodies to fill in the gaps caused by Hobbs being nicked up, and the typical wear and tear on the secondary during training camp. I'm sure they're nice guys, but they won't be nice guys here in New England.
Expectations
I expect that Rodney Harrison will be fined once or twice for vicious hits, get called dirty by the media. If he was white, he'd be called tough, gritty, gutsy, and old-school. Too bad football is the most racist of sports, but that's a story for another day. I also expect that Ellis Hobbs will continue to supply opposing wide receivers with 7 yard cushions and permit them to catch game-breaking touchdowns at will. I expect injuries, like always, and I expect a general feeling of malaise every time a quarterback lets go of the ball.
Seriously, this unit will probably play well against the run, but I don't foresee this being effective against the pass. Average is probably the best we can hope for.
Sleepers
I've said it before, it's hard to call high-round picks sleepers, but Terrence Wheatley could very well end up a starter by the end of the year. He's incredibly gifted, and surprisingly polished.
Under-The-Radar Contributor
James Sanders doesn't get a lot of credit, but he's developed into an incredibly solid all-around starter. He's capable against the pass and doesn't give anything up against the run. Rodney Harrison may get all the love (/hate), but if Brandon Meriweather makes the push for a starting job, he would be taking Harrisons job, not Sanders.
Worrisome Thoughts
Health is a bigger concern here than anywhere else but quarterback. The depth is so thin here, that if just two starters got hurt, we'd be looking at a crisis.
Other than injury, my other biggest concern is just the sheer sucktitude at cornerback.
Depth Chart
S
*Rodney Harrison
*James Sanders
Brandon Meriweather
John Lynch
Antwain Spann
Ray Ventrone
CB
*Ellis Hobbs
*Fernando Bryant
Terrence Wheatley
Lewis Sanders
Jonathan Wilhite
Jeff Shoate
Ade Jimoh
Key: Italics = rookie, *asterisk = starter,
The keepers are pretty clear cut, and the JAGs are pretty evident, but there is some question in the middle ground. I'd say Spann, Ventrone, Richardson, and Wilhite are all on the bubble. Wilhite probably gets by, since he's a rookie and hasn't had time to show much either way, and Ventrone makes it based on his versatility. That would seemingly leave Spann and Richardson on the chopping block, but Spann has looked REALLY good during the preseason, and with the overall weakness of the secondary, I'd say that probably means they'll carry an extra defensive back. Richardson gets the axe, but probably makes the practice squad, along with Dillard.
Bottom Line
Ugh, not good. Undeniably the weakest positional grouping on the roster. They'll play well against the run, but they're going to be victimized by the better passing teams, most of whom they thankfully avoid.*
*I think San Diego, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburg, Seattle, and Arizona all fall into this category. St. Louis, Indy, Pittsburg, and Seattle all have superlative quarterbacks, and San Diego and Arizona have a lot of receiving talent. These teams could give the Pats some real trouble.
Grade
C-
Special Teams
I know the 3rd part of the game deserves a full breakdown, but it's just too convoluted, and totally dependent on who gets cut. I'll just explain it real quick.
Stephen Gostowski, Kicker
He's got a strong leg on both kick-offs and field goals, and he's pretty accurate, although he has the maddening habit of coming ohsoclose to the uprights. There's not a lot of difference between elite and average when it comes to kickers, and I think that unless you have a guy like Bironas or Vinatieri, it's all pretty much the same. He'll be just fine.
Scott Hanson, Punter
He doesn't have the strongest leg, but he's very accurate which makes him a good fit with the Patriots. The New England offense will, more often than not, put Hanson in position to pin the opposing team close to their goal line, rather than rely on him to open up yardage. Of course, I'd prefer if Hanson's 2008 went like last season, when he was only used 5 times in the first 4 games, and 44 times total (the least of any full-time punter).
Lonnie Paxton, Long Snapper
Dude has the best job in the NFL. He's capable of delivering the ball to the holder on time and accurately, and for it he makes way more money than you or I likely. He's won 3 Super Bowls, and gotten to pal around with professional football players for 9 years. Good on him.
-Sox
Note: You may have noticed, if you actually care, that if you count up the number of players who I predict to make the active roster I name 54 people. The active roster is, in actuality, 53. You know what, I'm making a ton of guesses WAY in advance, give me this one little break. That 1 spot accounts for someone who might go on the PUP squad, or IR right before the season.
I know the 3rd part of the game deserves a full breakdown, but it's just too convoluted, and totally dependent on who gets cut. I'll just explain it real quick.
Stephen Gostowski, Kicker
He's got a strong leg on both kick-offs and field goals, and he's pretty accurate, although he has the maddening habit of coming ohsoclose to the uprights. There's not a lot of difference between elite and average when it comes to kickers, and I think that unless you have a guy like Bironas or Vinatieri, it's all pretty much the same. He'll be just fine.
Scott Hanson, Punter
He doesn't have the strongest leg, but he's very accurate which makes him a good fit with the Patriots. The New England offense will, more often than not, put Hanson in position to pin the opposing team close to their goal line, rather than rely on him to open up yardage. Of course, I'd prefer if Hanson's 2008 went like last season, when he was only used 5 times in the first 4 games, and 44 times total (the least of any full-time punter).
Lonnie Paxton, Long Snapper
Dude has the best job in the NFL. He's capable of delivering the ball to the holder on time and accurately, and for it he makes way more money than you or I likely. He's won 3 Super Bowls, and gotten to pal around with professional football players for 9 years. Good on him.
-Sox
Note: You may have noticed, if you actually care, that if you count up the number of players who I predict to make the active roster I name 54 people. The active roster is, in actuality, 53. You know what, I'm making a ton of guesses WAY in advance, give me this one little break. That 1 spot accounts for someone who might go on the PUP squad, or IR right before the season.
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